Thursday, 24 March 2011

Shortage of new homes attracts attention - Times Online

A spat between two politicians — both with very nice houses and both unlikely to sell off chunks of their gardens to developers — has excited public interest in the supply of new homes for everyone else. This is an excellent turn of events, even if you do not like adversarial politics.

The new planning rules will allow communities to make many more decisions about what is built in their areas. But if all homeowners do not inform themselves about these deliberations, there is a risk that even fewer new homes will be built — construction is at its lowest since 1924 — or that dwellings arise that are a design blight on the neighbourhood.

But back to that fracas. On the Today programme on Radio 4 Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park, clashed with John Prescott over garden grabbing, the disposal of a slice of a surburban plot to a developer. Prescott was a believer, thinking it provided more homes in cities. Goldsmith, meanwhile, said that former commercial sites should be used instead.

The end of garden grabbing is part of a wider reform: central Government will no longer dictate how many homes should be put up in a city or a village. This will be a matter for locals. But the effect of this announcement has been the downing of tools on some sites because housebuilders are apprehensive about other aspects of the new planning rules. These give much more scope for homeowners — and even rival developers — to object to schemes. Some construction bosses fear that the cost of dealing with such disputes could reduce housebuilding further. Why? The developers claim that this extra expense will slim their margins. As a result, they will want to pay less for land, so deterring owners from selling. This reluctance could even affect the Government itself, which controls 45 per cent of the former hospital and other such sites deemed suitable for development.

I could elaborate on the consequences of the new planning regime. But the set-to between Prescott and Goldmsith should already have set you thinking that you need to get involved if you care about your area, the value of your house and the ability of first-time buyers to climb on to the housing ladder.

Damned statistics

House-price surveys: bad statistics or useful guides to the market’s direction? Yes, the argument is raging again. But for the moment, at least, its focus is not the survey from the Your Move estate agency, indicating that there will be a surge in activity after the World Cup. This analysis is based on past transaction figures from HMRC, which show an average rise of 8 per cent in home sales in the month after the tournament.

Will fans rise from their sofas to play a blinder in the property game? Or will the austerity Budget persuade them to stay put? Some commentators say that Halifax’s May index — prices down by 0.4 per cent — suggests that the slowdown is already here. Others, such as Stuart Law, of Assetz, the property investment company, are sceptical. “Halifax and Nationwide lend to customers with incomes at the lower end,” he says. “They buy the sorts of homes whose values are still languishing.”

Mr Law forecasts that the market will grow by 5 per cent this year, thanks to the recovery in prices of homes being bought by better-off southerners. As we report on page 4, in many parts of the South East, prices are 8 per cent below their peak in 2007. In parts of the North they stand at about 18 per cent below this level. Some locations defy this trend. Prices in the borough of Trafford, near Manchester, are 7.4 per cent lower than in the summer of 2007, but this area takes in “Gold Trafford”, the enclaves of Altrincham and Hale — popular with footballers.

This example illustrates the inadequacies of the Halifax and Nationwide indices, which are both compiled from their customers’ mortgage valuations. Despite these imperfections, we cannot afford to ignore either index. For footballers — and others in the high-earnings league — the pursuit of houses will continue to be the beautiful game, however tough the Budget. Halifax’s index sends a message that workers on average earnings suspect they should play it safe.

Shopping al desko

The ladies who lunch are one retail demographic. Far more numerous, however, are the ladies who never lunch because they have no time to leave their offices, though they do shop al desko.

Now these women are cited as the reason for the boom in online decor and furniture sites, such as Achica.com, a new entrant to the sector. Thinking of home, it seems, is a cushion against reality, even when you are not there.

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